Europe’s Commercial Vehicle Market Faces Tough Start to 2025

Slowing Down When We Need to Speed Up

The first half of 2025 has been tough for Europe’s commercial vehicle sector. Across vans, trucks, and buses, new registrations are down. Economic uncertainty, rising costs, and weak infrastructure support have all played a role in slowing demand. At the same time, the shift to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), critical to Europe’s climate targets, is moving forward, but not fast enough.

This mismatch presents both a challenge and a warning for the industry, particularly for those with exposure to commercial fleet assets. Without a step change in support and infrastructure, asset values risk being caught in the middle of a slow transition and fast-approaching regulation.

The Numbers Behind the Market Slowdown

According to the latest data from ACEA and industry analysts:

• Van registrations across the EU dropped 13.2% in H1 2025.

• Truck registrations fell 15.4%, with:

  • Medium-duty (3.5t–16t): down 20.0%

  • Heavy-duty (>16t): down 14.5%

• Buses saw a smaller dip of 4.4%.

These declines reflect the wider macroeconomic picture — lower logistics demand, uncertain interest rates, and delayed fleet investments.

Zero-Emission Vehicles: Progress, But Not Fast Enough

Amid these declines, ZEV uptake is growing, but at a pace far too slow to meet EU targets. Some of the more promising stats include:

• Battery-electric vans now make up 9.5% of the market, up from 5.8% a year ago.

• Electric trucks reached 3.6% market share, up from 2.1%.

  • Medium-duty electric trucks now make up 14.4%.

  • Heavy-duty electric trucks are still stuck at just 1.5%.

• Electric buses now account for 21.6% of new registrations, up from 16.4%.

While these numbers show momentum, they’re far from the scale needed. To meet 2030 climate goals, one in three new trucks sold in the EU must be zero-emission — a tenfold increase from today’s levels.

A Fragmented Map of Progress

Another challenge is how uneven progress has been across Europe. Just five countries – Sweden, the Netherlands, Austria, Denmark, and France, are responsible for almost 80% of all new electric truck registrations. And non-EU countries like Switzerland and Norway are outperforming most EU member states.

In larger markets:

• Germany saw a 10.4% decline in heavy-duty truck registrations, with only 509 BEVs.

• France grew by 59.5%, but BEVs still represent a small share of total volumes.

• Poland, Italy, and Spain posted BEV sales in the double or single digits, far below what’s needed.

This patchiness is a serious concern. A pan-European transition can’t succeed when progress is confined to a few markets.

What’s Holding Back the Transition?

The problem isn’t a lack of ambition, it’s a lack of enabling conditions. Two key gaps continue to stall ZEV uptake:

1. Infrastructure: Most countries lack the charging and refuelling infrastructure needed to make ZEVs a practical choice, especially for heavy-duty logistics.

2. Cost: ZEVs are still more expensive to buy and operate than diesel counterparts in most markets. Until cost parity is achieved, the business case for many operators just doesn’t stack up.

Without action on these two fronts, Europe’s 2030 climate targets will be out of reach and many commercial fleets will be stuck with stranded assets or declining residual values.

What This Means for Asset Valuations

For anyone involved in asset-backed lending, leasing, or fleet ownership, the implications are significant:

• Falling residual values for diesel fleets: As regulation tightens and ZEVs (eventually) take hold, diesel trucks and buses could see sharp drops in resale value — especially in countries accelerating the phase-out.

• Stranded assets: Older or less efficient vehicles may lose economic utility if they can’t meet emission zones or regulatory thresholds.

• Uneven risk: Assets in ZEV-ready markets (like the Netherlands or Sweden) may retain more value, while those in slower-moving regions could become riskier investments.

• Increased capital pressure: Operators may face the double hit of rising costs and falling asset values unless incentives or support structures change quickly.

Final Thoughts

While the move to cleaner fleets is underway, the pace isn’t nearly fast enough and the risks to value, investment, and competitiveness are growing.

The companies and investors who act now to assess their exposure, plan for transition, and position assets in forward-looking markets will be the ones that stay ahead of the curve.

At Hickman Shearer, we work with businesses to understand the strategic implications of these shifts, from asset valuations and fleet optimisation to investment planning and risk mitigation.

If you’d like to talk through what these trends mean for your asset base, get in touch: Contact Us

About Hickman Shearer

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